The Last Nation to Disappear

H/T: (here)

Uzbekistan – a country with a great future?

World demographic experts have drawn up a timescale indicating when certain countries will disappear from the world’s map. Uzbekistan, according to their prognoses, will continue to exist forever.

In contrast to the potentially eternal Uzbekistan, Russia, for example, is not expected to last beyond the year 2888, according to the website citing the Economist and Esquire magazines.

The magazines provide readers with a map, upon which countries are shaded in different colours indicating how long they will survive before their population dies out. On this map, brown is the most morbid colour – the countries shaded in this colour are expected to exist for less than 1,000 years.

Light brown indicates that experts have given these countries until the year 3200 (up to the year 3999) to carry on existing on the planet.

Inhabitants of countries coloured orange on the map need not panic – they will go on until 9999, and grey countries will survive beyond 10,000.

It is the countries that are shaded in green on the map which can enjoy their status as ‘eternal’ countries.

The map of the extinction of populations was created using the demographic predictions of the UN World Population Prospects.

The scientists’ research is based on the so-called net reproduction rate (NRR) – the average number of girls born to the average number of women in a particular country who live to the end of their reproductive lives.

The NRR is higher than one in 120 countries, most of these in the developing world. In these countries the birth rate is generally high, the number of girls born is growing, which means that the country is not threatened with extinction.

As well as developing countries, there are also some developing nations whose longevity seems to be assured – Ireland, Israel, New Zealand among them.

There are 83 less fortunate countries. Their NRR is less than one, i.e., demographic indicators for women are lower, and therefore their population can only carry on existing for a limited time.

On the list of countries most at threat of extinction are Macau (which could cease to exist by 2628), Hong Kong (2740), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2770), Russia (2888), Malta (2908), Slovakia (2957), Singapore (2978), Romania (3074), Hungary (3104), Ukraine (surviving to between 3000 and 3299).

The same fate awaits Japan, Germany, Italy and Spain, countries which will cease to exist within the next 1000 years. Even China only has 1500 years to live.

The last nations to disappear from the face of the Earth will be the USA, Virgin Islands, Tunisia, France, South Korea, Azerbaijan, Australia, the Antilles islands and Norway.

But according to the scientists there are countries that will never die, including all the African countries, the Middle East (excluding Iran), Central Asia and the Transcaucasus. This list includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Mongolia, Indonesia, the Philippines and most of the Latin American countries apart from Brazil and Chile.

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